13. WHY DO DIFFERENT ACTIVITY FORECASTERS OFTEN DISAGREE ON THEIR BEST TIMES?
Since anybody can publish a fish & game activity calendar (and many do), it depends on what they are basing their predictions. These can range from astrology and biorhythms to when Chief Buzzard Feather dropped that monster water buffalo in the Australian spring of 1874.
Most, of course, use the moon. Yet even these often differ to one degree or another, because while the criteria are the same, the formulas are different.
For example, say the moon is directly overhead tonight at 9:00 p.m. Some tables will predict 8:00 to 10:00 p.m. as a primary lunar period…starting one hour before the peak and ending one hour after (PrimeTimes also splits the center this way, but, as we’ll see in a second, the starting and ending times vary from day to day). Other tables will have you start at the 9:00 p.m. peak and continue for anywhere from 45 minutes to two hours.
Also, the length of each period differs between tables. Most are two hours, but we’ve seen them as long as five hours. And while virtually all hold that same length day after day, PrimeTimes’ periods vary, lasting anywhere from 30 minutes to 3.5 hours, depending on certain cycles of the moon.
Another reason tables may vary is they don’t all employ the same geographic location. PrimeTimes uses the center of any given time zone. (For more information on time zones, see #2 and #3 of this FAQ section). For the Eastern, Central, Mountain, and Pacific time zones in the U.S. we consider the centers to be at longitudes of 78, 93, 108 and 123 degrees, respectively. We do this so that for someone living on the far eastern or western edge of their time zone, the most our predictions would be off is 30 minutes. Some other tables use 75, 90, 105, and 120 degrees, apparently because they like round numbers, even if it means being off center. Of course, there are those that seem to be pulled from some obscure source and posted as is. If you can find somebody to ask what part of the time zones their lunar periods are set for, don’t be surprised if their answer is, “Huh?”
Some are so far off, they claim to be geared for the U.S., but are actually set for England! The publishers thought all they had to do was download the lunar data from a credible source and post it as is. They either didn't know or didn't want to take the time to adjust the data to the correct area of the world.
So, if you are confused by different predictions from different forecasters, the best advice is to research them thoroughly. If they don’t offer clear, scientifically-sound explanations for their predictions, go elsewhere.